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Hydrology scenarios that characterize plausible future drought conditions in the Colorado River Basin


An older version of this resource http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/ca2e152c9fca4b2aa7c3294a388c522d is available.
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Created: Jun 09, 2023 at 7:33 p.m.
Last updated: Jun 23, 2023 at 9:27 p.m.
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Abstract

This resource is an updated version of the following resource:
Salehabadi, H., D. Tarboton (2022). Hydrology scenarios that characterize plausible future drought conditions in the Colorado River Basin, HydroShare, https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.ca2e152c9fca4b2aa7c3294a388c522d

The previous dataset was updated using the most recent version (last updated on 12/15/2022) of the US Bureau of Reclamation Natural Flow database, covering the time period from 1906 to 2020. In addition to this update, the dataset now provides CRSS-ready-to-use input files including:
• Flow inputs at 29 CRSS sites
• MWD_ICS.SacWYType (Sacramento Water Year Type)
• TMD_East_Slope_Supply.St_Vrain_Annual_Flow (St Vrain Annual Flows)
• HydrologyParameters.SupplyScenario
• HydrologyParameters.TraceNumber
• MeadFloodControlData.hydrologyIncrement

This dataset holds streamflow sequences for three drought scenarios developed to characterize plausible future drought conditions in the Colorado River Basin. These sequences were produced using the methods described in Center for Colorado River Studies Future of the Colorado River Project white paper 4 entitled “The Future Hydrology of the Colorado River Basin” by Salehabadi, Tarboton et al. (2020) and paper Salehabadi, H., D. G. Tarboton, B. H. Udall, K. G. Wheeler and J. C. Schmidt, (2022), "An Assessment of Potential Severe Droughts in the Colorado River Basin," JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.13061. The three defined drought scenarios are as follows: (1) Millennium Drought, (2) Mid 20th Century Drought, and (3) Paleo Tree Ring Drought. The first two droughts were defined using the US Bureau of Reclamation Natural flows from 2000-2020 and 1953-1977, respectively. The last was defined using the years 1576-1600 from the Meko et al., 2017 tree ring reconstruction of streamflow at Lees Ferry. 100 streamflow traces, each 50 years long were produced for each scenario by resampling years with replacement. Resampling from identified past drought scenarios, provides test droughts based on past flows that are more severe, due to the variety in the sampling, than any past droughts that have actually occurred. They are nevertheless plausible, since they are derived from past records. We used a nonparametric resampling approach referred to as “Water Year Block Disaggregation” to split the simulated annual flow at Lees Ferry into monthly flows at each of the 29 Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS) natural inflow sites. For the first two scenarios where there are historical natural flows at the 29 CRSS sites, this selects the entire water year block of monthly flows across sites for the corresponding drought year. For the paleo scenario, where there are no flows at the sites, the historical natural flow year with the annual flow at Lees Ferry closest to the paleo flow is selected and then flows across the sites and months adjusted by the ratio of paleo flow to closest historical flow.

Subject Keywords

Coverage

Spatial

Coordinate System/Geographic Projection:
WGS 84 EPSG:4326
Coordinate Units:
Decimal degrees
North Latitude
41.5424°
East Longitude
-105.1301°
South Latitude
30.3360°
West Longitude
-115.6769°

Content

readme.txt

Last Updated on 6/16/2023 by Homa Salehabadi (homa.salehabadi@gmail.com)

Streamflow sequences for three drought scenarios were developed to characterize plausible future drought conditions in the Colorado River Basin as described by Salehabadi, Tarboton et al. (2020) and Salehabadi and Tarboton (2022). 

The dataset is available in two different formats:

1- CRSS-Ready-To-Use Input Files (CRSSInputFileFormat.zip)
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This format includes all the water supply input files that are required to run CRSS. These data are ready to be directly imported into CRSS.

In the "CRSSInputFileFormat" folder, there is a folder for each drought scenario ensemble as follows: 

      •  MillenniumDrought_2000_2020
      •  Mid20thCenturyDrought_1953_1977
      •  PaleoTreeRingDrought_1576_1600

Within each ensemble folder, there are 100 subfolders, each associated with a specific streamflow trace. Each trace folder contains 29 "Inflow Files" that provide flow data for 29 CRSS gages. Additionally, there are five other required input files within each trace folder included:

      •  HydrologyParameters.SupplyScenario
      •  HydrologyParameters.TraceNumber
      •  MeadFloodControlData.hydrologyIncrement
      •  MWD_ICS.SacWYType
      •  TMD_East_Slope_Supply.St_Vrain_Annual_Flow


The input file names are aligned with CRSS V.6 (CRSS.Mar2023).


2- Excel File Format
-------------------------------------------------------------

This format includes the generated data in Excel files, organized by specific ensembles. Each ensemble folder contains Excel files that provide the following information:

      •  Monthly Intervening Natural Flows at 29 CRSS sites.
      •  Annual Water Year Intervening Natural Flows at 29 CRSS sites.
      •  Sacramento Water Year Type (MWD_ICS.SacWYType in CRSS)
      •  St Vrain Annual Flows (TMD_East_Slope_Supply.St_Vrain_Annual_Flow in CRSS)

The dataset structure is as follows:

Folder: MillenniumDrought_2000_2020
Excel files: 
      •  DroughtScenario_ObsResampled20002020_100Traces50Years_MonthlyIntervNF_WithSiteIDs.xlsx
      •  DroughtScenario_ObsResampled20002020_100Traces50Years_AnnualWYIntervNF_WithSiteIDs.xlsx
      •  DroughtScenario_ObsResampled20002020_100Traces50Years_MWD_ICS.SacWYType.xlsx
      •  DroughtScenario_ObsResampled20002020_100Traces50Years_TMD_East_Slope_Supply.St_Vrain_Annual_Flow.xlsx

Folder: Mid20thCenturyDrought_1953_1977
Excel files: 
      •  DroughtScenario_ObsResampled19531977_100Traces50Years_MonthlyIntervNF_WithSiteIDs.xlsx
      •  DroughtScenario_ObsResampled19531977_100Traces50Years_AnnualWYIntervNF_WithSiteIDs.xlsx
      •  DroughtScenario_ObsResampled19531977_100Traces50Years_MWD_ICS.SacWYType.xlsx
      •  DroughtScenario_ObsResampled19531977_100Traces50Years_TMD_East_Slope_Supply.St_Vrain_Annual_Flow.xlsx

Folder: PaleoTreeRingDrought_1576_1600
Excel files: 
      •  DroughtScenario_PaleoResampled15761600_100Traces50Years_MonthlyIntervNF_WithSiteIDs.xlsx
      •  DroughtScenario_PaleoResampled15761600_100Traces50Years_AnnualWYIntervNF_WithSiteIDs.xlsx
      •  DroughtScenario_PaleoResampled15761600_100Traces50Years_MWD_ICS.SacWYType.xlsx
      •  DroughtScenario_PaleoResampled15761600_100Traces50Years_TMD_East_Slope_Supply.St_Vrain_Annual_Flow.xlsx


The Excel files for Monthly and Annual Flows are comprised of 100 sheets, each containing a 50-year sequence (Trace) of monthly or annual streamflow at the 29 CRSS sites. USGS Gage Numbers (Streamflow Gaging site number) are used to identify each CRSS natural inflow site (ID = 1 to 29) for which flow is simulated. The corresponding USGS Gage Numbers and CRSS site IDs and a map of their locations are provided in an Excel file (USGSGages_CRSSSites_CorrespondingIDs.xlsx).

For the Monthly and Annual Flows in the Millennium and Mid-20th Century droughts, the first two columns (A and B) hold the water year and month selected from historical flows to simulate that year.  The remaining columns contain intervening natural flow for the corresponding site, in acre-ft.  Intervening natural flow refers to the streamflow originating directly from the subwatershed that drains into the site, without passing any upstream site.  
For the Paleo Tree-Ring drought, the Excel files for Monthly and Annual Flows have three leading columns.  Column A (wy_TR) represents the tree-ring reconstruction year sampled for that trace year.  Columns B and C hold the water year and month selected from historical flows as being closest to the tree-ring flow at Lees Ferry.  The remaining columns contain intervening natural flow for each site, after adjustment by the ratio of paleo flow to closest historical flow. 


Data 
-------------------------------------------------------------

These files were generated using R programming, the US Bureau of Reclamation Natural Flow Database Excel file (last updated on 12/15/2022), Tree-Ring Reconstructed flow at Lees Ferry from the most skillful model of Meko et al. (2017), and historical data for Sacramento Water Year Type and St Vrain Annual Flows from CRSS.Mar2023.  



References
-------------------------------------------------------------

Meko, D. M., C. A. Woodhouse and E. R. Bigio, (2017), "Southern California Tree-Ring Study," California Department of Water Resources, https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/fbaf/487604e2537c8f51037035e59c13113edeeb.pdf.

Salehabadi, H., D. G. Tarboton, B. Udall, K. G. Wheeler and J. C. Schmidt, (2022), "An Assessment of Potential Severe Droughts in the Colorado River Basin," JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 58(6): 1053-1075, https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.13061.

Salehabadi, H., D. Tarboton, E. Kuhn, B. Udall, K. Wheeler, D. Rosenberg, S. Goeking and J. C. Schmidt, (2020), "The Future Hydrology of the Colorado River Basin," Center for Colorado River Studies, White Paper 4, Utah State University, https://qcnr.usu.edu/coloradoriver/files/WhitePaper4.pdf.

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, (2023), Colorado River Basin Natural Flow and Salt Data, Colorado River Basin Natural Flow Database. Last updated December 15, 2022, https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/NaturalFlow/current.html


Related Resources

This resource is described by Salehabadi, H., D. G. Tarboton, B. H. Udall, K. G. Wheeler and J. C. Schmidt, (2022), "An Assessment of Potential Severe Droughts in the Colorado River Basin," JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.13061.
This resource is described by Salehabadi, H., D. Tarboton, E. Kuhn, B. Udall, K. Wheeler, D. Rosenberg, S. Goeking and J. C. Schmidt, (2020), "The Future Hydrology of the Colorado River Basin," Center for Colorado River Studies, White Paper 4, Utah State University, https://qcnr.usu.edu/coloradoriver/files/WhitePaper4.pdf.
The content of this resource references Meko, D. M., C. A. Woodhouse and E. R. Bigio, (2017), "Southern California Tree-Ring Study," California Department of Water Resources, https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/fbaf/487604e2537c8f51037035e59c13113edeeb.pdf.
The content of this resource is derived from Tree Ring Reconstructed Flow at Lees Ferry (Most skillful model of Meko et al., 2017) from https://www.treeflow.info/content/upper-colorado.
This resource updates and replaces a previous version Salehabadi, H., D. Tarboton (2022). Hydrology scenarios that characterize plausible future drought conditions in the Colorado River Basin, HydroShare, http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/ca2e152c9fca4b2aa7c3294a388c522d
The content of this resource is derived from U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, (2023), Colorado River Basin Natural Flow and Salt Data, Colorado River Basin Natural Flow Database. Last updated on December 15, 2022, https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/NaturalFlow/current.html.
The content of this resource is derived from Historical data for Sacramento Water Year Type and St Vrain Annual Flows from CRSS.Mar2023

Credits

Funding Agencies

This resource was created using funding from the following sources:
Agency Name Award Title Award Number
Walton Family Foundation
Catena Foundation

Contributors

People or Organizations that contributed technically, materially, financially, or provided general support for the creation of the resource's content but are not considered authors.

Name Organization Address Phone Author Identifiers
Sara Goeking Utah State University Utah, US
Kevin Wheeler University of Oxford Oxfordshire, GB
David E Rosenberg Utah State University Utah, US
Eric Kuhn Former General Manager of the Colorado River Water Conservation District Colorado, US
John C. Schmidt Utah State University Utah, US
Brad Udall Colorado Water Institute, Colorado State University Colorado, US

How to Cite

Salehabadi, H., D. Tarboton (2023). Hydrology scenarios that characterize plausible future drought conditions in the Colorado River Basin, HydroShare, http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/15693b79fc6b47ccbe6dd42c7b734d98

This resource is shared under the Creative Commons Attribution CC BY.

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
CC-BY

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