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|Resource type:||Composite Resource|
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|Created:||Jul 28, 2020 at 12:33 p.m.|
|Last updated:|| Aug 25, 2020 at 4:28 p.m.
|Citation:||See how to cite this resource|
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Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause significant societal and economic impacts, as 2019’s Dorian serves to remind us of these storms’ destructiveness. Decades of effort to understand and predict Atlantic TC activity have improved seasonal forecast skill, but large uncertainties still remain, in part due to an incomplete understanding of the drivers of TC variability. Here we identify an association between the East Asian Subtropical Jet Stream (EASJ) during July-October and the frequency of Atlantic TCs (wind speed ≥ 34 knot) and hurricanes (wind speed ≥ 64 knot) during August-November based on observations for 1980-2018. This strong association is tied to the impacts of EASJ on a stationary Rossby wave train emanating from East Asia and the tropical Pacific to the North Atlantic, leading to changes in vertical wind shear in the Atlantic Main Development Region (80°W-20°W, 10°N-20°N).
Resource Level Coverage
|The content of this resource is derived from||GFDL dynamical model (https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/atmospheric-model/)|
|The content of this resource is derived from||JRA‐55 (https://jra.kishou. go.jp/JRA-55/index_en.html)|
|The content of this resource is derived from||NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html)|
|The content of this resource is derived from||Hurricane data from the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data)|
|The content of this resource is derived from||ERA‐5 (https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era5)|
|The content of this resource is derived from||MERRA2 (https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/reanalysis/MERRA-2/)|
|The content of this resource is derived from||Sea surface temperature from the Met Office Hadley Center (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/)|
This resource was created using funding from the following sources:
|Agency Name||Award Title||Award Number|
|National Science Foundation||Quantification of the Impacts of Urban Areas on Heavy Rainfall and Flooding from North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones||EAR‐1840742|
|U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Institute for Water Resources|
|National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration||NA18OAR4310273|
|Carbon Mitigation Initiative (CMI)|
|National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration||Cooperative Institute for Modeling the Earth System (CIMES)||NAOAR4320123|
People or Organizations that contributed technically, materially, financially, or provided general support for the creation of the resource's content but are not considered authors.
|Wei Zhang||University of Iowa|
|Gabriele Villarini||University of Iowa||Iowa, US||ORCID|
|Gabriel A. Vecchi||Princeton University|
How to Cite
This resource is shared under the Creative Commons Attribution CC BY.http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/