Hi, I'm an error. x

Agreement and uncertainty among climate change impact models: A synthesis of sagebrush steppe vegetation predictions

A newer version of this resource http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/3b420b738128411e8e1e11b38b83b5f1 is available that replaces this version.
Resource type: Composite Resource
Storage: The size of this resource is 372.1 MB
Created: Sep 30, 2019 at 8:03 p.m.
Last updated: Oct 02, 2019 at 9:21 p.m.
DOI: 10.4211/hs.6af3a8cc235d43a6a5be13298aee0af2
Citation: See how to cite this resource
Content types: Geographic Feature Content  Geographic Raster Content 
Sharing Status: Published
Views: 438
Downloads: 11
+1 Votes: Be the first one to  +1 this.  (You need to be logged in to rate this.)
Comments: No comments (yet)


Ecologists have built numerous models to predict how climate change will impact vegetation, but these predictions are difficult to validate, making their utility for land management planning unclear. In the absence of direct validation, researchers can ask whether predictions from varying models are consistent. Here, we analyzed 43 models of climate change impacts on sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt.), cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.), pinyon-juniper (Pinus spp. and Juniperus spp.), and forage production on Bureau of Land Management (BLM) lands in the United States Intermountain West. These models consistently projected pinyon-juniper declines, forage production increases, and the potential for sagebrush increases in some regions of the Intermountain West. In contrast, models of cheatgrass did not predict consistent changes, making cheatgrass projections uncertain. While differences in emission scenarios had little influence on model projections, predictions from different modeling approaches were inconsistent in some cases. This model-choice uncertainty emphasizes the importance of comparisons such as this.
The projected vegetation changes have important management implications for agencies such as the BLM. Pinyon-juniper declines would reduce the BLM’s need to control pinyon-juniper encroachment, and increases in forage production could benefit livestock and wildlife populations in some regions. Sagebrush habitat may benefit where sagebrush is predicted to increase, but sagebrush conservation and restoration projects will be challenged in areas where climate may not remain hospitable. Projected vegetation changes may also interact with increasing future wildfire risk, potentially impacting vegetation and increasing management challenges related to fire.

Subject Keywords

  • No subject keywords have been added.
  • ${ k }

Duplicate. Keyword not added.

Error: ${ error }
Deleting all keywords will set the resource sharing status to private.

Resource Level Coverage


Coordinate System/Geographic Projection:
WGS 84 EPSG:4326
Coordinate Units:
Decimal degrees
Place/Area Name:
U.S. Intermountain West
North Latitude
East Longitude
South Latitude
West Longitude



Related Resources

This resource has been replaced by newer version: http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/3b420b738128411e8e1e11b38b83b5f1


Funding Agencies

This resource was created using funding from the following sources:
Agency Name Award Title Award Number
National Science Foundation
The Wilderness Society

How to Cite

Zimmer, S., G. Grosklos, P. Adler, P. Belmont (2019). Agreement and uncertainty among climate change impact models: A synthesis of sagebrush steppe vegetation predictions, HydroShare, https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.6af3a8cc235d43a6a5be13298aee0af2

This resource is shared under the Creative Commons Attribution CC BY.



There are currently no comments

New Comment