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Adjusted Paleo-Conditioned Hydrology Ensemble that Characterizes Warming-Driven Declining Streamflow in the Colorado River Basin


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Created: Nov 27, 2023 at 5:11 p.m.
Last updated: Jan 13, 2025 at 10:49 p.m. (Metadata update)
Published date: Dec 23, 2024 at 1:32 p.m.
DOI: 10.4211/hs.87b00d9dd3214ecba85200cca9d6a9cd
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Sharing Status: Published
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Abstract

This resource contains streamflow sequences (or traces or time series) for the adjusted paleo-conditioned ensemble generated to represent the plausible storyline of "Increasing Variability Around a Declining Mean" in the Colorado River Basin, as described by Salehabadi, Tarboton et al. (2024). This warming-driven declining streamflow ensemble was created by adjusting the marginal distribution of stationary streamflow time series, generated using the Nonparametric Paleo-Conditioning (NPC) method (Prairie et al., 2008), to incorporate the estimated decline and increasing variability of future flow. The streamflow data is available in two formats: Excel Files and CRSS-Ready-To-Use Input Files, with a starting year of 2024 and an ending year of 2100. CRSS-Ready-To-Use Input Files include all necessary water supply data required to run the Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS) and are ready to be directly imported into the model.

This resource holds the data generated in:
Salehabadi, H., Tarboton, D. G., Wheeler, K. G., Prairie, J., Smith, R., & Baker, S. (2024). Developing Storylines of Plausible Future Streamflow and Generating a New Warming-Driven Declining Streamflow Ensemble: Colorado River Case Study. Water Resources Research. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024WR038618

Subject Keywords

Coverage

Spatial

Coordinate System/Geographic Projection:
WGS 84 EPSG:4326
Coordinate Units:
Decimal degrees
North Latitude
41.5009°
East Longitude
-104.9194°
South Latitude
29.8317°
West Longitude
-115.6421°

Content

readme.txt

Streamflow sequences (or traces or time series) for the adjusted paleo-conditioned ensemble developed to represent the plausible storyline of "Increasing Variability Around a Declining Mean" in the Colorado River Basin, as described by Salehabadi, Tarboton et al. (2024) and Prairie et al. (2008). 
 

The dataset is available in two formats:

1- CRSS-Ready-To-Use Input Files (CRSSInputFileFormat_AdjPaleoCond.zip)
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This format includes all the water supply input files that are required to run CRSS. These data are ready to be directly imported into CRSS.

In the "CRSSInputFileFormat_AdjPaleoCond" folder, there is a folder containing 100 subfolders, each associated with a specific streamflow trace. Each trace folder contains 29 "Inflow Files" that provide flow data for 29 CRSS gages. Additionally, there are five other required input files within each trace folder included:

      •  HydrologyParameters.SupplyScenario
      •  HydrologyParameters.TraceNumber
      •  MeadFloodControlData.hydrologyIncrement
      •  MWD_ICS.SacWYType
      •  TMD_East_Slope_Supply.St_Vrain_Annual_Flow

The input file names are aligned with CRSS V.6 (CRSS.Mar2023).


2- Excel File Format (ExcelFiles_AdjPaleoCond folder)
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This format includes the generated data in Excel files that provide the following information:

      •  AdjPaleoCond_MonthlyIntervNF.xlsx:  Monthly Intervening Natural Flows at 29 CRSS sites.
      •  AdjPaleoCond_AnnualWYIntervNF.xlsx:  Annual Water Year Intervening Natural Flows at 29 CRSS sites.
      •  AdjPaleoCond_LeesFerryAnnualWYTotalNF.xlsx:  Annual Water Year Total Natural Flows at Lees Ferry.
      •  AdjPaleoCond_MWD_ICS.SacWYType.xlsx:  Sacramento Water Year Type (MWD_ICS.SacWYType in CRSS)
      •  AdjPaleoCond_TMD_East_Slope_Supply.St_Vrain_Annual_Flow.xlsx:  St Vrain Annual Flows (TMD_East_Slope_Supply.St_Vrain_Annual_Flow in CRSS)

The Excel files for Monthly and Annual Intervening Natural Flows are comprised of 100 sheets, each containing a 77-year sequence (trace) of monthly or annual streamflow at the 29 CRSS sites. USGS Gage Numbers (streamflow gaging site number) are used to identify each CRSS natural inflow site for which flow is simulated. The corresponding USGS Gage Numbers and a map of their locations are provided in an Excel file (USGSGages_CRSSSites.xlsx).

For the Monthly and Annual Flows, the first one or two columns (A and B) hold the water year and month selected from historical flows to simulate that year.  The remaining columns contain intervening natural flow for the corresponding site, in acre-ft.  Intervening natural flow refers to the streamflow originating directly from the subwatershed that drains into the site, without passing any upstream site.  


Data 
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These files were generated using R programming, the US Bureau of Reclamation Natural Flow Database Excel file (last updated on 12/15/2022), Tree-Ring Reconstructed flow at Lees Ferry from the most skillful model of Meko et al. (2017), and historical data for Sacramento Water Year Type and St Vrain Annual Flows from CRSS.Mar2023.  



References
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Meko, D. M., Woodhouse, C. A., & Bigio, E. R. (2017). Southern California Tree-Ring Study. California Department of Water Resources. https://cwoodhouse.faculty.arizona.edu/content/california-department-water-resources-studies

Salehabadi, H., Tarboton, D. G., Wheeler, K. G., Prairie, J., Smith, R., & Baker, S. (2024). Developing Storylines of Plausible Future Streamflow and Generating a New Warming-Driven Declining Streamflow Ensemble: Colorado River Case Study. Water Resources Research. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024WR038618

Prairie, J., Nowak, K., Rajagopalan, B., Lall, U., & Fulp, T. (2008). A stochastic nonparametric approach for streamflow generation combining observational and paleoreconstructed data. Water Resources Research, 44(6), W06423. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006684

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, (2023), Colorado River Basin Natural Flow and Salt Data, Colorado River Basin Natural Flow Database. Last updated December 15, 2022, https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/NaturalFlow/current.html


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Related Resources

This resource is described by Salehabadi, H., Tarboton, D. G., Wheeler, K. G., Prairie, J., Smith, R., & Baker, S. (2024). Developing Storylines of Plausible Future Streamflow and Generating a New Warming-Driven Declining Streamflow Ensemble: Colorado River Case Study. Water Resources Research. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024WR038618

Credits

Funding Agencies

This resource was created using funding from the following sources:
Agency Name Award Title Award Number
United States Bureau of Reclamation Cataloguing and Generating Hydrology Scenarios in the Colorado River Basin R21AC10342

Contributors

People or Organizations that contributed technically, materially, financially, or provided general support for the creation of the resource's content but are not considered authors.

Name Organization Address Phone Author Identifiers
Rebecca Smith US Bureau of Reclamation Boulder, CO, USA
Kevin Wheeler University of Oxford Oxfordshire, GB
Sarah Baker US Bureau of Reclamation Boulder, CO, USA
James Prairie US Bureau of Reclamation Boulder, CO, USA

How to Cite

Salehabadi, H., D. Tarboton (2024). Adjusted Paleo-Conditioned Hydrology Ensemble that Characterizes Warming-Driven Declining Streamflow in the Colorado River Basin, HydroShare, https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.87b00d9dd3214ecba85200cca9d6a9cd

This resource is shared under the Creative Commons Attribution CC BY.

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
CC-BY

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