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Source code: Target comparability limits cross-station river stage prediction


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Created: May 11, 2026 at 1:15 p.m. (UTC)
Last updated: May 11, 2026 at 2:51 p.m. (UTC)
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Abstract

Trained model checkpoints and reproduction artifacts accompanying the manuscript "Target comparability, not model architecture, limits cross-station river stage prediction" (under review at Water Resources Research, 2026). The bundle contains the LSTM, XGBoost, Manning, Transformer, TCN, and MLP implementations evaluated across 2,885 USGS gauging stations; trained model checkpoints; the frozen canonical 2,020 / 431 / 434 train / val / test station partition; per-station stage normalization statistics; verification scripts (smoke_test.py, compare_to_freeze.py); and a machine-readable record of the paper's headline metrics (frozen_numbers.json). Headline result: re-expressing river stage as low-flow-referenced depth restores cross-station zero-shot generalization (median NSE = 0.708 across 434 unseen test stations), versus systematic failure (NSE = -2.48) when stage is the prediction target. The same pattern holds across six model families.

Subject Keywords

Coverage

Spatial

Coordinate System/Geographic Projection:
WGS 84 EPSG:4326
Coordinate Units:
Decimal degrees
North Latitude
49.0000°
East Longitude
-67.0000°
South Latitude
24.0000°
West Longitude
-125.0000°

Content

Credits

Funding Agencies

This resource was created using funding from the following sources:
Agency Name Award Title Award Number
National Natural Science Foundation of China Key Program 52439003
National Key R&D Program of China None 2024YFC3211400; 2023YFC3206805
Jiangsu Science and Technology Programme None BZ2024034
Major Science and Technology Project of the Ministry of Water Resources None SKS-2025092

How to Cite

Sun, Y., Q. Li (2026). Source code: Target comparability limits cross-station river stage prediction, HydroShare, http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/88a17155c64b44979ce902c847ebe357

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). Source code (within the bundle) is additionally released under the MIT License upon formal publication of the resource.

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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