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4-State Hidden Markov Model Using PMDI and Temperature for Climate-Informed Scenario Generation

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Type:	Resource
Storage:	The size of this resource is 216.5 MB
Created:	Jun 05, 2025 at 4:39 p.m. (UTC)
Last updated:	Jun 10, 2025 at 1:10 p.m. (UTC)
Published date:	Jun 10, 2025 at 1:10 p.m. (UTC)
DOI:	10.4211/hs.a46a305cb4b4430e9643178fe11f7cf3
Citation:	See how to cite this resource

Sharing Status:	Published
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Abstract

This repository contains R scripts for implementing a computationally efficient 4-state Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that uses temperature as a covariate to generate ensembles of plausible Palmer Modified Drought Index (PMDI) scenarios across the Western U.S. The model uses paleo PMDI data, which spans from 1500 to 1980 with a matrix grid of 1823 x 481 (e.g., 1823 grid-cells and 481 years). Similarly, paleo temperature data covers the same period, arranged in a matrix grid of 1637 grid cells by 481 years. To address the high dimensionality of the datasets, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is applied to each variable, and the first six principal components (PCs) from both PMDI and temperature are retained as input to the HMM. The trained HMM is then used to simulate future PMDI scenarios by leveraging bias-corrected CMIP6 temperature projections under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2–4.5 scenario. The HMM framework is designed to capture the spatiotemporal variability and regime-shifting behavior of hydroclimatic patterns. It provides critical insights into the spatial correlation of wet and dry conditions across the Western U.S., supporting regional drought risk assessment and long-term water resource planning.

For a more detailed description of the model, please refer to the following paper:

Tezcan, B., & Garcia, M. (2025). Training a hidden Markov model with PMDI and temperature to create climate informed scenarios.
Frontiers in Water, 7, Article 1472695. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2025.1472695

Subject Keywords

Coverage

Spatial

Coordinate System/Geographic Projection:

WGS 84 EPSG:4326

Coordinate Units:

Decimal degrees

Place/Area Name:

Western United States

North Latitude

49.0000°

East Longitude

-97.1000°

South Latitude

30.0000°

West Longitude

-124.9000°

Temporal

Start Date:
End Date:

Content

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Credits

Funding Agencies

This resource was created using funding from the following sources:

Agency Name	Award Title	Award Number
U.S. National Science Foundation	Balancing Local and Systemic Resilience in the Western Water Network	CIS-1942370

How to Cite

Tezcan, B., M. Garcia (2025). 4-State Hidden Markov Model Using PMDI and Temperature for Climate-Informed Scenario Generation, HydroShare, https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.a46a305cb4b4430e9643178fe11f7cf3

This resource is shared under the Creative Commons Attribution CC BY.

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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