Paper: A Fragility Framework for Surface Erosion with Application to Earthen Dam Breaching
Submitted to: WRR
Prepared by: Ege C. Kurter, Ayman M. Nemnem, M. Hanif Chaudhry and Jasim Imran
Email to egecankurter@gmail.com for any questions

This text explains the documents shared in HydroShare
The folder contains the necessary files that were used in producing this research

1) -Figures- folder contains the high-resolution PNG version of all the figures
All figures are produced and/or edited in Inkscape,
The plots are produced using MATLAB codes

2) -Monte Carlo Simulation.xlsx- file consists the MCS calculations for all dams
In the first three sheets:
1st column is the simulation number
2nd column is the generated rainfall depth from Table 2
3rd column is the corresponding applied shear stress calculated using the regression equations given in Fig. 6
4rd column is the generated critical shear stress from the defined probability density functions
5th column is the limit state function Z. The magnitudes in this column are categorized into different erosion state magnitudes. To work with the python code for fragility curve fitting, create extra column of Failure(1)/Non-Failure(0) based on the erosion state magnitude.
The fourth sheet summarizes the limit state magnitudes for all three dams.

3) -fitting_fragility_curves.py- file contains the maximum likelihood estimation code for fragility curve fitting

4) -Hydrograpgs.xlsx- file contains inflow hydrographs generated using the HEC-HMS hydrologic model, which served as input for the SSA hydraulic model. It includes two main inflow locations: Jackson Creek, representing the inflow to Cary’s Lake Dam, and Gills Creek, representing the inflow to Upper Rocky Ford Dam. The file provides hydrographs for various storm return periods—10, 25, 50, 100, 200, 500, and 1000 years—as well as the 2015 historic flood event. For each event, the hydrographs include the mean flow along with the lower and upper bounds of the 90% confidence interval (CI).

Notes:
1) The random simulation samples are generated using short python scripts for rainfall depth and critical shear stress
2) The complete hydraulic calculations for determining overflow properties are tabulated in Table 3 and B1, therefore we do not provide a separate excel file for them.