Stochastic mixed-integer optimization is used to identify a portfolio of long- and short-term supply and conservation actions for a municipal water system to cost-effectively accommodate a distribution of water shortages. Alternative robust, grey-number, and best/worst case formulations systematically explore implications of uncertainties in action costs, life spans, water volumes gained or saved, shortage levels, and shortage probabilities. A detailed example for Amman, Jordan considers 23 potential actions. Results show: (1) remarkable consistency occurs across the different modeling approaches. (2) Conserving water—reducing leakage and targeting select customers to install water efficient appliances—plays an important and growing role over time. (3) A delayed need for large supply projects like pumping the Disi aquifer. (4) No role appears for seawater desalination (Red–Dead Canal) before 2040. (5) Desalinating brackish Zara-Ma’een water is the low-cost option to increase water availability to customers but requires substantial capital investments. And (6) two shortcomings arise for grey-number and best/worst case approaches.

Rosenberg, D.E., Lund, J.R. Modeling Integrated Decisions for a Municipal Water System with Recourse and Uncertainties: Amman, Jordan. Water Resour Manage 23, 85–115 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-008-9266-4.

NOTE: This work was done from 2006 to 2009 before sharing data, models, code, and directions were a thing. ALL MATERIAL is provided UNWARRANTED without PROMISE of USABILITY or RE-USABILITY.

Contents:
- Data: Some of the input data particularly on Drawater sources.
- Drafts: Drafts of the manuscript prior to publication
- Literature: Copies of some of the literature cited in the paper.
- Modeling: General Algebraic Modelling System files.
- WAJ: Water Authority of Jordan data.

AmmanComponentAnalysis.xls - Excel file with the input data and calculations for the Water Budget shown in Figure 3.
GreyNumberProblems.xls - Excel file with results for the Grey Number model formulation.
Rosenberg_ModelingUtilityDecisions_WARM332.doc - Manuscript file
RosenbergLund-2009-ModelingUtilityDecisions-WaterResourcesManagement.pdf - Final version of the paper as published.