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Urban Water Demand Regression Modeling for California Water Suppliers

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Created: Jan 19, 2021 at 11:58 p.m.
Last updated: Jun 16, 2021 at 4:14 p.m.
DOI: 10.4211/hs.e9137bf4054a45778a7944d3ebceea0f
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Content types: Model Program Content 
Sharing Status: Published
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Urban water demand modeling with regression identifies explanatory factors of water use in cities. A generalized demand modeling approach was developed for over 400 urban water supply agencies in California. Using standardized data from self-reported sources for agencies across the state, a batch-processing approach was used to create standardized urban water demand models. The models were developed to test the validity of a simplified and generalized demand modeling approach using monthly available data. Semilog, multivariate regression models were developed for each urban water supply agency. Consumption from residential (single- and multi-family), commercial, industrial, and institutional water use were considered as outcome variables. Explanatory variables include indicator variables for months in a calendar year, periods of water conservation requirements during a 2011-16 severe drought, population, and water rates. The models were of reasonable fit, with adjusted R-squared values ranging from 0.6-0.99. Visual inspection revealed that the monthly models captured trends with reasonable accuracy. The time frame for models was 2013-18, a period with standardized available data through statewide reporting. The modeling approach has been subsequently further extended to incorporate additional climate variables (precipitation and evapotranspiration) for sector-specific models. The models are intended to understand explanatory factors of demand through a generalized modeling approach and not intended to be used for water supply operations without further refinement and testing. The approach can be adapted to many types of cities.

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The content of this resource is derived from California State Water Resources Control Board: Electronic Annual Reports (partial)
This resource has been replaced by a newer version Porse, E. (2021). Urban Water Demand Regression Modeling for California Water Suppliers, HydroShare,

How to Cite

Porse, E. (2021). Urban Water Demand Regression Modeling for California Water Suppliers, HydroShare,

This resource is shared under the Creative Commons Attribution-NoCommercial CC BY-NC.


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