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Urban Water Demand Regression Modeling for California Water Suppliers


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Resource type: Model Program Resource
Storage: The size of this resource is 1.7 MB
Created: Jan 19, 2021 at 11:58 p.m.
Last updated: Jan 20, 2021 at 12:42 a.m.
DOI: 10.4211/hs.e9137bf4054a45778a7944d3ebceea0f
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Sharing Status: Published
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Abstract

Urban water demand modeling with regression identifies explanatory factors of water use in cities. A generalized demand modeling approach was developed for over 400 urban water supply agencies in California. Using standardized data from self-reported sources for agencies across the state, a batch-processing approach was used to create standardized urban water demand models. The models were developed to test the validity of a simplified and generalized demand modeling approach using monthly available data. Semilog, multivariate regression models were developed for each urban water supply agency. Consumption from residential (single- and multi-family), commercial, industrial, and institutional water use were considered as outcome variables. Explanatory variables include indicator variables for months in a calendar year, periods of water conservation requirements during a 2011-16 severe drought, population, and water rates. The models were of reasonable fit, with adjusted R-squared values ranging from 0.6-0.99. Visual inspection revealed that the monthly models captured trends with reasonable accuracy. The time frame for models was 2013-18, a period with standardized available data through statewide reporting. The modeling approach has been subsequently further extended to incorporate additional climate variables (precipitation and evapotranspiration) for sector-specific models. The models are intended to understand explanatory factors of demand through a generalized modeling approach and not intended to be used for water supply operations without further refinement and testing. The approach can be adapted to many types of cities.

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Resource Level Coverage

Spatial

Coordinate System/Geographic Projection:
WGS 84 EPSG:4326
Coordinate Units:
Decimal degrees
Place/Area Name:
California
Longitude
-120.2575°
Latitude
36.4426°

Temporal

Start Date:
End Date:

Content

Resource Specific

Software
Programming Language R
Operating System Windows 10
Release Date 01/19/2021
Version 1.0

References

Sources

Derived From: California State Water Resources Control Board: Electronic Annual Reports (partial)

How to Cite

Porse, E. (2021). Urban Water Demand Regression Modeling for California Water Suppliers, HydroShare, https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.e9137bf4054a45778a7944d3ebceea0f

This resource is shared under the Creative Commons Attribution-NoCommercial CC BY-NC.

 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
CC-BY-NC

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