Urban Water Demand Regression Modeling for California Water Suppliers

An older version of this resource http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/e9137bf4054a45778a7944d3ebceea0f is available.
Resource type: Model Program Resource
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Created: Jun 16, 2021 at 4:14 p.m.
Last updated: Jun 16, 2021 at 4:25 p.m.
DOI: 10.4211/hs.f70cefe684b746c6b37dd4ca056a6b34
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Urban water demand modeling with regression identifies explanatory factors of water use in cities. A generalized demand modeling approach was developed for over 400 urban water supply agencies in California. Using standardized data from self-reported sources for agencies across the state, a batch-processing approach was used to create standardized urban water demand models. The models were developed to test the validity of a simplified and generalized demand modeling approach using monthly available data. Semilog, multivariate regression models were developed for each urban water supply agency. Consumption from residential (single- and multi-family), commercial, industrial, and institutional water use were considered as outcome variables. Explanatory variables include indicator variables for months in a calendar year, periods of water conservation requirements during a 2011-16 severe drought, population, and water rates. The models were of reasonable fit, with adjusted R-squared values ranging from 0.6-0.99. Visual inspection revealed that the monthly models captured trends with reasonable accuracy. The time frame for models was 2013-18, a period with standardized available data through statewide reporting. The modeling approach has been subsequently further extended to incorporate additional climate variables (precipitation and evapotranspiration) for sector-specific models. The models are intended to understand explanatory factors of demand through a generalized modeling approach and not intended to be used for water supply operations without further refinement and testing. The approach can be adapted to many types of cities.

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Resource Level Coverage


Coordinate System/Geographic Projection:
WGS 84 EPSG:4326
Coordinate Units:
Decimal degrees
Place/Area Name:


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End Date:


Resource Specific

Programming Language R
Operating System Windows 10
Release Date 01/19/2021
Version 1.0



Derived From: California State Water Resources Control Board: Electronic Annual Reports (partial)

Related Resources

This resource updates and replaces previous version: http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/e9137bf4054a45778a7944d3ebceea0f

How to Cite

Porse, E. (2021). Urban Water Demand Regression Modeling for California Water Suppliers, HydroShare, https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.f70cefe684b746c6b37dd4ca056a6b34

This resource is shared under the Creative Commons Attribution-NoCommercial CC BY-NC.



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