Tarique Aziz

Utah State University

Subject Areas: Irrigation

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ABSTRACT:

This study evaluates the severity of the 2021 drought in Red Butte Creek (RBC) at Fort Douglas, Utah, using long-term streamflow records from the United States Geological Survey (USGS). RBC, a critical water source for ecosystems and urban supply, has been continuously monitored since 1963. Daily discharge data from 1964 to 2024 were retrieved and analyzed using a Python-based workflow built with the dataretrieval and pandas libraries. Statistical summaries and visualizations, including time series plots, percentile analyses, and a flow duration curve, were used to assess drought conditions. Results indicate that 2021 had the lowest recorded average, minimum, and maximum streamflows in the 60-year record. Nearly 95% of the year experienced below-normal flows, with 35% of days falling below the 5th percentile. The 2021 flow duration curve showed streamflows significantly lower than historical norms across all exceedance probabilities. These findings confirm that the 2021 drought had a widespread and persistent impact on streamflow, emphasizing the need for continued hydrologic monitoring and adaptive water management strategies in the face of increasing drought frequency and severity.

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ABSTRACT:

This study evaluates the severity of the 2021 drought in Red Butte Creek (RBC) at Fort Douglas, Utah, using long-term streamflow records from the United States Geological Survey (USGS). RBC, a critical water source for ecosystems and urban supply, has been continuously monitored since 1963. Daily discharge data from 1964 to 2024 were retrieved and analyzed using a Python-based workflow built with the dataretrieval and pandas libraries. Statistical summaries and visualizations, including time series plots, percentile analyses, and a flow duration curve, were used to assess drought conditions. Results indicate that 2021 had the lowest recorded average, minimum, and maximum streamflows in the 60-year record. Nearly 95% of the year experienced below-normal flows, with 35% of days falling below the 5th percentile. The 2021 flow duration curve showed streamflows significantly lower than historical norms across all exceedance probabilities. These findings confirm that the 2021 drought had a widespread and persistent impact on streamflow, emphasizing the need for continued hydrologic monitoring and adaptive water management strategies in the face of increasing drought frequency and severity.

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