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Multiscale ecological niche modeling exhibits varying climate change impacts on habitat suitability of Madrean Pine-Oak trees

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Created: Mar 13, 2023 at 11:11 p.m.
Last updated: Mar 14, 2023 at 4:57 p.m.
DOI: 10.4211/hs.2892ca1822774f3f99332b7b7a3bdca0
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Sharing Status: Published
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Publication Abstract:
Anthropogenic climate change and increasing greenhouse gas emissions are expected to globally impact the biological function, community structure, and spatial distribution of biodiversity. Many existing studies explore the effect of climate change on biodiversity, generally at a single spatial scale. This study explores the potential effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of seven tree species at two distinct spatial scales: the Coronado National Forest (CNF), a local management area, and the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO), an ecoregional extent. Habitat suitability was determined by extrapolating Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) based on citizen-science tree occurrence records into future climatic conditions using projected 30-year normals for two anthropogenic emissions scenarios through the end of the century. These ENMs, examined at a spatial resolution of 1 km2, are constructed using a mean average ensemble of three commonly used machine learning algorithms. The results show that habitat suitability is expected to decrease for all seven tree species at varying degrees. Results also show that climate-forcing scenario choice appears to be far less important for understanding changes in species habitat suitability than the spatial scale of modeling extent. Additionally, we observed non-linear changes in tree species habitat suitability within the SMO and CNF dependent on forest community type, latitude, and elevational gradient. The paper concludes with a discussion of the necessary steps to verify the estimated alters of these tree species under climate change. Most importantly, provides a framework for characterizing habitat suitability across spatial scales.

Subject Keywords



Coordinate System/Geographic Projection:
WGS 84 EPSG:4326
Coordinate Units:
Decimal degrees
North Latitude
East Longitude
South Latitude
West Longitude


Start Date:
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This resource belongs to the following collections:
Title Owners Sharing Status My Permission
Climate Adaptation Science Project Work CAS Coordinator · David Rosenberg  Public &  Shareable Open Access


Funding Agencies

This resource was created using funding from the following sources:
Agency Name Award Title Award Number
National Science Foundation Climate Adaptation Science 1633756
USU Ecology Center


People or Organizations that contributed technically, materially, financially, or provided general support for the creation of the resource's content but are not considered authors.

Name Organization Address Phone Author Identifiers
USU Ecology Center US
Sarah C Klain Utah State University UT, US
Wei Zhang Utah State University Utah, US
Thaddeus Nicholls Utah State University;Climate Adaptation Science

How to Cite

Carrell, J. D. (2023). Multiscale ecological niche modeling exhibits varying climate change impacts on habitat suitability of Madrean Pine-Oak trees, HydroShare,

This resource is shared under the Creative Commons Attribution CC BY.


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