ABSTRACT:

This Resource is created for Homework 5 of CE 59700, course held at 2020 Spring semester in Purdue University. The goal of this homework is to forecast streamflow series by a first order exponential model. USGS gage 03335500, Wabash River at Lafayette, is the target gagee in this homework. Our streamflow forecasting model is built by object-oriented programming skill. The error of prediction is reported with respect to different parameter of model. The further optimization process would be taken in the following class of CE 59700.

Task of HW5 is to split your streamflow dataset into training set and validation set. The prediction made by your model is compared to the validation set split in the beginning. This procedure is known as the training process, which is popular in optimization problem. Create a function to report the mean square error of your model. Fit your model with training set and change alpha value manually. Find the best model which returns the minimum MSE value. Turn in the alpha value and the MSE value you get.